Frances Cairncross on the revolutionary nature of smartphones

According to Cairncross, the revolutionary nature of smartphones cannot be disputed. This is because for the first time we are dealing with a truly private, portable computer that fits in your pocket. It is the fastest-selling gadget in history and is now owned by more than half of the world's adult population. Between 2013 and 2015, the percentage of people owning a smartphone in developing countries increased from 21% to 37%. Statistics: who is a smartphone owner? The potential impact of smartphones depends on age, income and education. In the United States, where the average person uses their phone for two hours a day, 92% of 18-29 year olds own a smartphone. At the same time, the percentage of smartphone owners among people earning less than $30 a year is 000%, while for those earning more than $64 it is 75%. A similar difference also applies to university graduates (89% have a smartphone) and people who did not finish high school (only 54%). Translating this data into political elections, we can say that the average smartphone owner is more likely to vote for Clinton than for Trump. The Economic Revolution of Smartphones Cairncross highlighted several features of smartphones that make them revolutionary. First of all, they offer all the possibilities that regular phones offered. Secondly, they are equipped with a camera, which influences the methods of communication used by their owners and the popularity of taking photographs: while in 2000 around 80 billion photos were taken worldwide, in 2015 this number was already 1,5 trillion. Thirdly, they allow you to always know where your user is. Geolocation is just one of the pieces of information that smartphones collect about their users. They also enable counting the steps a user has taken on a given day, providing information on where and when they were shopping, and how many stairs they climbed. Thus, the amount of information that smartphones collect about their users is much greater than that which our computers have about us. Smartphones have influenced the creation of new business models based on content shared by their users. The examples of Facebook, Alibaba, Airbnb and Uber show that the function of platforms as intermediaries is the source of the greatest economic benefits. We can therefore say that value is created by the interface itself, not only by the products or services sold via it. At the same time, the product or service that the user receives is no different from traditional ones, which may lead to a fight between entrepreneurs operating on traditional principles and new players. Referring to the above-mentioned changes in business models, Cairncross asked about the impact of smartphones on economic efficiency: has productivity increased or decreased because of them? According to Cairncross, we do not have indicators that allow us to reliably measure the impact of smartphones: purely economic indicators do not take into account the impact of smartphones on people's satisfaction and creativity. Thus, it is difficult from an economic perspective to understand and study the benefits that we derive from the emergence of smartphones, because it is not easy to find hard numbers to count them. The Future of Smartphones and the Future of the World Cairncross also touched on the impact of smartphones on politics: not only is the length of the news we read decreasing, but also – paradoxically, despite easy access to information – the number of sources from which we get it is decreasing. Twitter has become a new weapon that makes information seem credible simply because it was posted by someone the recipient trusts. At the same time, smartphones themselves are currently used to a small extent by public authorities: either to disseminate information among citizens or to assist in the provision of state-provided services. It is in this area that Cairncross expects far-reaching changes in the near future. Using smartphones to increase the efficiency of public services can reduce the cost of providing them. The slowness of the process of implementing technology by public entities postpones the moment of radical change in the functioning of the state, which mobile technology may bring. At the same time, Frances Cairncross emphasized the neutrality of technology. The ways in which it is used depend on humans: smartphones can help save the lives of refugees in the Mediterranean Sea, help predict suicides with the help of artificial intelligence, or help develop local businesses in areas where transport is difficult and expensive, increasing its efficiency thanks to fast and cheap communication. At the same time, their potential may – as is the case with public services – be wasted in some way.