DELab Talks Report with Guntram B. Wolff

Donald Trump's policies are the biggest external challenge facing the European Union. According to Director Wolff, its impact on the EU is difficult to predict. On the one hand, the deterioration of relations between the EU and the US may weaken the EU economy, on the other hand, his decisions may lead to a weakening of the United States' position in the international arena, which may be an opportunity for the EU to strengthen its own position. It is difficult to determine what trade policy President Trump will pursue, whether he will follow through on his announcements to increase taxation on goods from Mexico to 20%, and what US fiscal policy will look like under his administration. In turn, the internal challenge that the EU must face is maintaining the unity of the European Union after the UK's decision on Brexit, which – according to Wollf – will take place within two years. Populist political parties also pose a threat to EU unity. They gain support by making impossible promises to voters and fuelling anti-EU sentiment. The trend of growing support for movements and parties questioning the idea of ​​integration constitutes a barrier not only to its possible deepening, but also – as the experience of the Brexit referendum shows – to maintaining the achievements achieved so far. Wollf identified three causes as the sources of these events and trends. First, there is income inequality: in the US and UK, citizens do not feel they are sharing in the benefits of economic growth. Interestingly, similar trends can be observed in EU countries where – according to research – income inequality has been decreasing for 20 years. The second reason is opposition to the cultural values ​​represented by liberals. The return to traditional values ​​of a large group of society is illustrated by an example of research on the type of education that should be conducted in schools. Trump voters pointed to traditional methods, while Clinton voters pointed to the need to support creativity in children. The third cause of the events mentioned above is the issue of immigrants. Director Wolff cited the example of the growing support for the far-right German party, Alternative für Deutschland – according to polls, Eurosceptic rhetoric was convincing for 4% of respondents, while anti-immigration rhetoric was convincing for 15%. It is important to consider how we might respond to these events. According to Director Wolff, it is crucial to carefully analyse where inequalities actually occur and to counteract them. First of all, it is necessary to strengthen the position of states in the fight against inequality and to undertake a more effective fight against tax and financial fraud. He also drew attention to the need for more effective protection of the EU's external borders. Furthermore, it is important to respond appropriately to Trump's moves, especially regarding trade policy. The problem remains that in the EU – at the current level of integration – it is impossible to conduct a common fiscal policy. Thus, in a situation in which the United States introduces high tariffs on goods imported from the EU, the EU as a whole would not be able to respond with an effective, uniform policy. Thus, the chances for a brighter future depend on the ability to take decisive, solidarity-based actions, including a comprehensive fight against the sources of the above-mentioned problems – the only question is whether the Union is ready for them.