The fifteenth episode of the „Efekt Sieci” podcast looks at the issue of modelling social processes – the best example of which is the prediction of the spread of the coronavirus.
The expert in the interview with Dr. Justyna Pokojska is Dr. Franciszek Rakowski, author of the epidemic development model, who addresses issues such as :
- differences and discrepancies arising between forecasts of, for example, the development of the COVID-19 pandemic,
- factors to be taken into account in order to produce the most accurate forecast possible,
- the importance of the concept of „accuracy” in the development of mathematical and statistical models,
- predictions of what lies ahead in the coming months, taking into account the data obtained through the modelling process and the issue of coronavirus predictability itself,
- the possibility of predicting any phenomenon,
- the types of processes that cannot be captured by the model and the obstacles that prevent forecasting.